Australia’s resources and energy export earnings are forecast to soften over the next two years despite rising export volumes, according to the federal government’s newly released September 2025 Resources and Energy Quarterly (REQ).
The Department of Industry, Science and Resources said that while gold prices remain strong, global economic uncertainty continues to weigh on most other commodity prices.
It found that export earnings are expected to decline from $385 billion in 2024–25 to $354 billion in 2026–27, even as export volumes rise modestly.
The report noted that record gold prices are providing support to the sector. “Gold earnings are set to rise to $60 billion in 2025–26, driven by higher volumes and prices,” the government stated.
Iron ore remains Australia’s largest export earner, accounting for around a quarter of total resource and energy exports.
However, as global supply increases, iron ore prices are forecast to fall, with export earnings projected to decline from $116 billion in 2024–25 to $103 billion in 2026–27.
Energy exports are expected to weaken over the outlook period. The report forecasts declines in thermal coal, LNG, and oil, with a sharp drop in oil prices expected to flow through to LNG exports.
“LNG export earnings are projected to decline from $108 billion in 2024–25 to $81 billion in 2026–27,” the government said.
Alumina earnings are also forecast to ease as the price surge of 2024 unwinds, with values falling from more than $12 billion in 2024–25 to $9 billion by 2026–27.
In contrast, the outlook for critical minerals remains positive. Lithium earnings are forecast to recover from recent steep declines, rising from $4.8 billion in 2024–25 to $6.1 billion in 2026–27.
Export earnings from other critical minerals—including manganese and rare earths—are expected to grow from $2 billion to $5 billion over the same period.
According tothe government, the increase is expected to be supported by the resumption of manganese production at GEMCO and expansions at rare earth projects such as Lynas’ Kalgoorlie processing facility.
The government said earnings forecasts for 2025–26 are largely unchanged from the June 2025 report, while projections for 2026–27 have been revised slightly upwards.
