Global manufacturing conditions ended 2025 on a subdued footing, with growth remaining modest as output expanded slightly while new orders and employment were broadly unchanged, according to the December JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI report.
The report, produced by JP Morgan and S&P Global Market Intelligence in association with ISM and IFPSM, showed the headline PMI edged down to 50.4 in December from 50.5 in November, remaining above the neutral 50.0 threshold for a fifth consecutive month and signalling continued but weak manufacturing expansion.
According to the report, manufacturing output rose for the fifth successive month, while suppliers’ delivery times were also consistent with expansion. However, new orders and employment levels showed no change, and stocks of purchases declined.
Manufacturing activity expanded in 18 of the 29 economies covered by the survey, led by India, Vietnam and Greece, with further growth reported in the United States, mainland China and the United Kingdom. In contrast, PMI readings for Japan and Germany were consistent with contraction.
The report indicated that manufacturing output growth was recorded across the consumer, intermediate and investment goods sectors, although the pace of expansion eased in consumer and intermediate goods. Investment goods producers returned to expansion after stalling in November.
“The J.P. Morgan global manufacturing output PMI moved down 0.3-point to 50.9 in December, a level consistent with modest but still positive production growth,” said Maia Crook, Global Economist at JP Morgan.
New business volumes showed no overall growth in December, ending a four-month period of mild expansion, with the report attributing the weakness mainly to the intermediate goods sector.
Among larger industrial economies, the report showed new order growth in China, India and the UK, while the US, Japan and the euro area recorded declines.
Export demand remained weak, with the report noting that new export orders fell for a ninth consecutive month as international trade volumes continued to contract.
Looking ahead, the JP Morgan PMI report described the outlook for global manufacturing as mildly positive, with business optimism holding at a five-month high despite remaining below long-run averages.
Crook said the latest PMI readings pointed to some loss of momentum late in the year but also early signs of improvement.
“Two consecutive monthly declines in the output and new orders indexes suggest a loss of momentum into year-end, though encouragingly the future output PMI signals an improvement in business confidence in the fourth quarter,” she said, adding that “a 1.6-point jump in the investment goods PMI was also encouraging, suggesting a pickup in business equipment spending last month after stalling in November.”
