Manufacturing strategies in the global confectionery sector are beginning to shift as manufacturers explore cocoa-free chocolate options to manage heightened volatility in cocoa supply and pricing, according to new research from Rabobank.
In its report Beyond the bean: ‘Big chocolate’ explores cocoa-free pathways, Rabobank’s RaboResearch division says climate disruption, disease and regulatory pressures have unsettled traditional cocoa sourcing, prompting manufacturers to consider alternative inputs to strengthen production resilience.
The research notes that cocoa-free chocolate innovation is moving beyond niche trials and becoming part of broader manufacturing and reformulation discussions.
“[C]ocoa-free (chocolate product) volumes are negligible, but partnerships between startups and major food companies show that diversification is shifting from niche experiments to a more deliberate part of the innovation agenda,” RaboResearch said.
The report highlights recent turbulence in the global cocoa market, with prices peaking at about USD 11,900 per metric ton in late 2024 before easing in late 2025. Prices remain around double 2023 levels, according to RaboResearch analyst Paul Joules.
“For Australia, these high prices have been felt in consumers’ hip pockets, coming through in increased chocolate prices,” he said.
Rabobank says cocoa-free alternatives are unlikely to replace conventional chocolate bars in the near term, with early manufacturing adoption expected in compound chocolate applications such as coatings, fillings and inclusions.
“Core chocolate formats remain the hardest to replicate, so early adoption will concentrate on compound applications,” the report said.
RaboResearch identifies three main technology pathways attracting manufacturing investment: lab-grown cocoa, fermentation-based substitutes and upcycled ingredient systems.
“Each track strikes a different balance between the sensory performance of its end product, its scalability and its environmental impact,” Mr Joules said.
While cocoa remains the backbone of chocolate manufacturing, Rabobank said the push toward alternatives is about managing risk rather than replacement.
“This is not about replacing cocoa – it’s about creating options that add resilience, support cost stability, sustainability and flexibility,” RaboResearch said.
