Australia’s resources and energy export earnings are expected to decline over the next two years, according to the Australian Government’s latest Resources and Energy Quarterly, released by the Department of Industry, Science and Resources.
The June 2025 report forecasts that earnings from the sector will fall from an estimated $385 billion in 2024–25 to $369 billion in 2025–26, and further to $352 billion in 2026–27, as revealed in a government news release.
The department attributed the downward trend to ongoing global trade tensions and conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine.
Despite the decline in export income, the report shows some bright spots in the sector. Gold is performing strongly, with record prices pushing it to become Australia’s third-largest resources and energy export next year, behind iron ore and LNG. Export earnings from gold are forecast to reach $56 billion before easing into 2027. Exploration spending on iron ore, Australia’s top export earner, also continues to rise, indicating long-term confidence in the sector.
Minister for Resources and Northern Australia Madeleine King said that while global commodity prices are moderating, Australia’s resources companies are expected to remain globally competitive.
“The latest Resources and Energy Quarterly underlines how Australia remains a trusted and reliable supplier of resources and energy to the world at a time of ongoing global uncertainty,” Minister King said.
“Higher prices for gold, and forecast higher copper and lithium exports, are partly offsetting the impact of lower prices for iron ore, coal and LNG.”
Minister King also reiterated the Australian Government’s support for the sector, noting significant investments aimed at strengthening Australia’s long-term role in global energy supply chains.
“We have invested $3.4 billion in the Resourcing Australia’s Prosperity initiative to provide the geoscience that is foundational to our resources sector, and we have legislated $7 billion worth of production tax credits to strengthen domestic critical minerals processing and help Australia and the world achieve net zero by 2050,” she said.
The data in the June 2025 quarterly report is consistent with the outlook published in March, with export volumes expected to increase slightly over the next two years, continuing to support employment and economic activity across the country.
The full June 2025 Resources and Energy Quarterly is available on the Department of Industry, Science and Resources website.
