Australian agriculture is facing a series of near-term decisions that could influence its productivity, profitability and sustainability through to 2050, according to a new discussion paper from CSIRO and the Australian Farm Institute.
The paper, Ag2050 next steps – scenarios to decisions, identifies decisions, uncertainties and practical actions across areas including sovereign security, resilience, sustainability reporting and agricultural innovation.
CSIRO Program Lead Dr Rose Roche said the paper builds on a multi-year program examining possible futures for Australian farming.
“We started in 2024 working with industry to co-design four evidence-based future scenarios for Australian farming systems, exploring their benefits and trade-offs, which we presented in the Ag2050 Scenarios Report,” said Dr Roche.
The scenarios range from a technologically advanced and consolidated agricultural sector focused on productivity and growth, to a more diversified model incorporating carbon sequestration, biodiversity and energy production. Other scenarios examine incremental adaptation to climate impacts and the potential for declining productivity and resilience if responses to emerging challenges are delayed.
Dr Katherine Wynn, who led the development of the scenarios and stakeholder roundtable, said the process highlighted areas where uncertainty could slow decision-making.
“When the Ag2050 scenarios were developed, many of these challenges were still emerging,” Dr Wynn said.
“Today they are embedded in decision-making across government and industry, making it more important than ever to understand how today’s choices are shaping Australia’s agricultural future.”
The discussion paper follows an Ag2050 roundtable held in March involving representatives from government, industry, research, regional and Indigenous organisations.
Australian Farm Institute Executive Director Katie McRobert said decisions made in the near term would have consequences for the sector’s development.
“The strategic choices that we make today are going to have significant impact in the years leading to 2050,” McRobert said.
The organisations said the discussion paper is intended to support further discussion among government, industry, research, regional and Indigenous organisations on the evidence, coordination and decisions needed to shape Australia’s agricultural future.
