A new report by Oxford Economics Australia has warned that workforce shortages across Australia’s food and grocery manufacturing sector are expected to intensify over the next decade, with demand projected to outpace labour supply in several critical manufacturing-related occupations.
The report, commissioned by the Australian Food and Grocery Council, examined workforce pressures across five occupations considered essential to food and grocery manufacturing operations, including food and drink factory workers, packers, forklift drivers, purchasing and supply logistics clerks, and manufacturing production managers.
According to the report, the sector accounts for around 2% of Australia’s total employment and has a workforce heavily concentrated in labourer and technician and trades worker roles, which it said are “disproportionately exposed to workforce shortage conditions”.
Oxford Economics Australia said the sector faces “a structural problem that cannot be solved by short-term recruitment alone”, with workforce gaps being driven by an ageing workforce, employee attrition and workers leaving for jobs in other industries.
The report found that in some occupations, more than 40% of the current workforce is expected to leave over the next decade due to retirement-related attrition. Among forklift drivers, the figure is projected to reach 60%, which the report said is around double the national average.
It also identified packers as facing the most significant workforce risk. While new workers are continuing to enter the occupation through education pathways, the report estimated that about half of the 2025 workforce — approximately 9,100 workers — is expected to leave the role through movement into other occupations. Combined with attrition, this is projected to result in a workforce gap of about 5,000 workers by 2035 despite relatively stable employment demand.
Oxford Economics Australia said migration and education pipelines were expected to continue supplying new workers across most occupations, but these inflows would not be sufficient to offset retirements and labour leakage into other sectors.
The report said its analysis was intended to provide an evidence base to support workforce policy discussions between industry and government. Oxford Economics Australia said the study combined occupational demand and supply modelling, labour market data and scenario-based projections to quantify future workforce gaps across the five occupations.
According to the report, the findings are intended to help industry and government “move the conversation from anecdote to quantified risk” in addressing workforce challenges facing the food and grocery manufacturing sector.
