A quarterly report on South Australia’s business outlook says that the state’s output as part of the national economy will continue to drop from its current level of a little over 6%, according to the ABC.
However, it is not all doom and gloom for SA’s economy, as the Deloitte Access Economic report forecasts improvement in the housing construction sector and in retail sales, especially when adjusted for population growth.
It says the state’s growth over the long term should remain solid, averaging 2% annually over the next decade, down from nearly 3% in the previous two decades and still below the national growth rate.
Deloitte says commercial construction in SA remains subdued, but the engineering sector is being supported by road and rail projects and the prospect of the $1.5 billion Ceres wind farm.
The report also says that while the Olympic Dam mine expansion was put on ice, it remains a world-class resource and will proceed at some stage.
It also says fears of domino effects from Holden’s manufacturing demise in Adelaide are being blown out of proportion.
“The number of jobs directly lost in South Australia as a result of Holden ending its local manufacturing operations is likely to be less than 2000 people,” it said.
“Although that is undoubtedly a disaster for the individuals involved it isn’t a disaster when measured against the state’s employment base of 800,000 people.”
The quarterly report says the jobless rate appears to have peaked and that the Air Warfare Destroyer program is expected to see its peak employment in the next year or two.
Treasurer Tom Koutsantonis said the outlook report showed South Australia’s economy was a much better position than some people realised, while opposition Leader Steven Marshall said it showed Tasmania’s economic growth was forecasted to outperform South Australia’s over the next five years.