Leading aircraft manufacturer Airbus predicts that the passenger aircraft fleet serving the Australia South Pacific region will grow from 700 aircraft today to over 1,200 by 2033 driven by strong economies, tourism and propensity to travel.
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According to the company’s Global Market Forecast (GMF), international traffic serving the Australia South Pacific region will grow annually at 4.5%, while traffic to and from neighbouring developing markets will grow even quicker, with traffic to Asia growing at 5.1%, Latin America 6.2%, Africa 6.3% and the Middle East 5.4%.
“While the fleet serving the region will increase by 70%, widebody aircraft will more than double from some 290 today to over 640 by 2033. In 20 years, the passenger fleet serving the region will increase by nearly 500 aircraft (146 single aisles like the A320 and A320neo and 353 wide-bodies from 250 to over 500 seats such as the A330, A330neo, A350 XWB and the A380),” reads the press release by Airbus.
“The region’s propensity to travel is almost double that of North America and it will remain the world’s highest at over four trips per capita by 2033. Domestically, traffic to and from Australia’s busiest airports, (Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide, Brisbane and Perth) is set to double with an additional ~90 million passengers a year by 2033.”
Estimates show that at present about 70% of international traffic is within the wider Asia Pacific region including China (PRC). The number is expected to steadily grow as the region is forecasted to become home to 40% of the world’s GDP by 2033. The PRC is Australia’s single biggest export market and increased air links will fuel business and tourism between the two.
“Today, Chinese travellers indicate Australia among their top destinations. Forecasts for Australian inbound tourism generally suggest nearly 10 million visitors a year by 2022. Today, 99.7% of these tourists arrive by air, and in the future will increasingly arrive on aircraft like the A330neo and for denser routes the A350 XWB and A380,” according to the press release.
Airbus’ Global Market Forecast has revealed the number of aviation mega-cities globally will double to 91 by 2033 and will include Perth, Brisbane and Auckland in addition to Sydney and Melbourne, which already feature on the list. It is expected that these 91 centres of wealth will account for 35% of global GDP and will be served by high capacity aircraft like the A380, with some 95% of all long haul traffic travelling to from or through them.
The Market Forecast predicts that passenger traffic will grow annually at 4.7% on a global scale, driving a need for around 31,400 new passenger and freighter aircraft worth US$4.6 trillion.
